CHESSNOID

Does history repeat itself?  More often than not, I think it does.  Trying to understand the current stock markets is a challenge whether you are a technical analyst or fundamentalist.  Back in the Great Depression we had both upturns and downturns.  A great place to check out data and charts are at Dshort.com.   He is definitely advanced in his analysis, but looking at the data and the charts he supplies makes it more simple than it really is.  This allows for more people like me to understand the information better.

I found this information useful from Dshort:

Is the current market just a repeat of the early 1930s?  Well, we can’t know until it is played out.  However, you can make decisions of whether you want to be in this market right now or later.  If you can, imagine yourself living in 1929 and having your money tied up in the stock market (brokerage account, 401k, IRAs,other retirement funds) then watching it fall 47% in 10 weeks only to see it go back up 48% the following 22 weeks.  At the end of 3 years, the market eventually fell 89%.

Is it possible that history may repeat itself? Of course it can, but no one will know until after it has happened.  You should also keep in mind, if you were able to keep your money in the markets even with this downturn for the next 90 years, you would be ahead even with the current market downturn.

I just read this article from a week ago and surprised it was put out there without getting any bigger mention.  We know the economy is bad and the new Washington buzzwords “jobless recovery”  is to pretend it is not as bad as we see it everyday.  Even though the government didn’t count over 800,000 jobs lost in the past year, which would push our real unemployment rate up, the reports claimed the unemployment rate dropped to 9.7%.

Yahoo Finance:

The real numbers

Today’s headline numbers report was that the unemployment numbers, ’surprisingly fell to a five-month low of 9.7%,’ according to today’s government report.

In reality, unemployment spiked to an all-time high of 18%. Yes, 18%! This is the official number reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

The BLS publishes different sets of data on a regular basis. The main focus tends to be on the U-3 unemployment rate (currently 9.7%, seasonally adjusted).

U-3 is the ‘official’ unemployment rate and illustrates total unemployed persons as a percentage of the civilian labor force. U-4 is another category that includes unemployed workers plus discouraged workers. A discouraged worker is someone who’s available to work but has stopped actively seeking for work.

U-5 unemployment includes the number of unemployed workers, plus discouraged workers, plus marginally attached workers. A marginally attached worker is someone who is able and willing to work but is not actively seeking work.

U-6 is as close to the real unemployment figure as government reporting gets. This number includes unemployed workers, plus discouraged workers, plus marginally attached workers, plus workers that are forced to work part-time because they are not able to find a full-time job. Put another way, it’s the most realistic picture of today’s job market as any.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the number of U-6 unemployed workers is 18% (not seasonally adjusted – 16.5%). This is the highest number of record.

Keep in mind that neither of the above categories encompasses another important element of the labor force; ‘unemployed self-employed’ workers. If you’re a handyman or contractor next door, or a small business owner who can’t secure work, you are not included! Adding these folks to the mix would put the real unemployment number above 20%!

Reality Steve has already put the spoiler out about Bachelor Jake and Vienna.  If you want to see my old blog post about it:

Bachelor Jake Final Pick (Spoiler Alert) Courtesy of Reality Steve

If you want to get some more insight, you can go to his site where gh puts in lots of details.  If you want  the short version, here it is from Reality Steve site:

Now to a question I’m getting asked far too often, and that’s “What’s Jake and Vienna’s status now?” I will tell you this: When they ended filming in November, Vienna was Jake’s final one. He chose her to either continue to date, or to marry. Not sure which one, but he DID NOT pull a Womack and dump both girls. He chose Vienna. Did he propose? Not sure. If I had to guess, I’d say he did. I just couldn’t see someone as high as a kite about wanting to meet someone and fall in love and be married, choose Vienna after those 5-6 weeks with her and say, “Yeah, let’s just date”. But that’s just my opinion. Which brings us to: “Are they still together now?” Answer: I don’t know. If I had to guess, probably not. Especially with all this stuff in the media coming out about her.

A lot of you are asking, “How can he be with a girl like that?”, and I don’t necessarily disagree, all I’m saying is he knew nothing about “this” Vienna while filming the show. He didn’t know about topless pin up calendars, or milking ex’s bank accounts for a boob job (if that’s even true). And the fact that Chris defended her saying in the time she was there, she’s a good girl at heart but just a little outspoken, and even Corrie today, in her post show interview, says that Vienna wasn’t all that bad. Just young, loud, and stupid. It’s apparent now that Vienna was one way with Jake, and a complete mega-bitch around the girls. So, I guess she fooled him, but obviously, there’s a reason Jake picked her. I’m sure if he knew now what he didn’t know back then, no way he would’ve chosen her, but what can you do about it now? This show has been in the can for 2 ½ months. A lot has happened since. We’ll see how it plays out, but I’m sorry to inform all the Vienna haters out there, Jake chose her back when filming ended in November.

Yes, Bachelor Jason and Molly are still together and are set to get married in March on TV, just like Ryan and Trista.

Entertainment Weekly:

ABC has announced plans to air the wedding of The Bachelor’s Jason Mesnick and Molly Malaney in a two-hour special on March 8, hosted by Chris Harrison. Per the network, “The couple, who announced their engagement in October, will let viewers in on all the exciting festivities — from Molly’s dress fitting for her dazzling custom-made gown, to Jason and Molly planning the big day with their wedding planner and event designer. Then it’s on to their bachelor and bachelorette parties and the next stage of their romantic journey with a beautiful wedding ceremony in the perfect location. Past Bachelor and Bachelorette couples, stars and participants (to be announced at a later date) will be on the guest list to help the couple celebrate along with their family and friends.”

Reasons I would tune in for this (besides that fact that EW pays me to) include: Little kids in formal wear are adorable and Mesnick’s son, Ty, is no slouch; the only thing better than a good wedding is an over-the-top one, so here’s hoping Molly is as obsessed with pink as Trista was; and it’ll be fun to see if Ryan is still not comfortable in front of the camera in the obligatory “Where are Trista and Ryan now?” package.

Why will you tune in? Or, if you’re RSVPing “No,” why are passing? It’s hard to hold a grudge against Jason for the way he dumped Melissa when she went on to Dancing With the Stars,Good Morning America, and her own wedding. At least, that must be what ABC is hoping. Is the network right? Poll after the jump, Bachelor fans.