CHESSNOID

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Psychology of the housing market boom and bust

Posted on Jul 20, 2007 by CHESSNOID in Uncategorized | 0 Comments

I am definitely not a real estate expert, but I do have a lot of working knowledge in the field. In the last 2 years, many housing bloggers have been saying the sky is falling in reference to the housing prices. I was actually looking to buy a condo in downtown San Diego 3 years ago near the top of the market boom. I briefly lived in San Diego when I was a kid. The weather and scenery is just beautiful. It fell through for me because of bad timing. Now they seem to have come down dramatically in prices in that area. That convinces me that things happen for a reason.


[flash http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=10WoQZKZkNs&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fbubbletracking%2Eblogspot%2Ecom%2F]
I would have wound up buying a $450,000 high rise condo in downtown with sweeping views of the bay. Of course, I would of had to use one of those special loans that we keep hearing about now. At the time, I even remember the real estate agent telling me not to worry about payments. He would be able to get me $1500 interest only payments on a $400,000 loan fixed for 3 years and that after it re-set I could just refinance and in the future the condo would be worth over $550-600,000 easy with just average appreciation. With my stellar credit and a $50,000 down payment (10% + closing costs), the deal was a slam dunk. My loan was pre-approved and all I had to do was pick out a condo in my range. The company I worked for at the time started having problems financially and that pretty much killed the deal. I felt uneasy about making a big commitment.

I remember my plan was to take the metrolink from downtown San Diego to Costa Mesa. It would only be a 40 minute train ride. I got the idea from an IT person that worked for the company. My commute at the time was anywhere between 1-2 hours to Riverside depending on how many fender benders there were and what day of the week it was. I am sure you can all relate and feel my pain. I even toyed with the idea of not having a car and strictly become a mass transit type of guy. I have tried the metrolink many times and always enjoy it.


[flash http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLPRaw9R6_g&eurl=http%3A%2F%2Fwww%2Egoogle%2Ecom%2Fsearch%3Fq%3Doceanside%2Bmetrolink%26sourceid%3Dnavclient%2Dff%26ie%3DUTF%2D8%26rlz%3D1B2GGGL%5Fen%5F%5F203%5F%5F203iurl%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fimg%2Eyoutube%2Ecom%2Fvi%2FBLPRaw9R6%5Fg%2Fdefault%2Ejpg]
Those condos have come down about $100,000 to $150,000 but those special loans I once considered are pretty much like dinosaurs now. I still like the idea of taking the metrolink back and forth to work and will have to re-evaluate this with my wife. One of things that allured me into buying at the time was the skyrocketing of housing prices. It seemed I would get priced out of the market and miss the real estate riches boat if I didn’t buy then. Now, people who were able to buy houses and condos for speculative reasons are hurting. They have empty houses and condos that they can’t sell. In my opinion, people who are living in them for homes to actually live in, and not for speculation really have nothing to worry about. The house is still the same house they were living in it last month, regardless of how much your next door neighbors house sold for. I know it definitely makes anyone feel good knowing his or her house is going up in value, but really that is just on paper until you actually sell it. The market is in a cycle that is going down, but in the future it will cycle up. History has and will always repeat itself.People just need to stop focusing on the greed factor and understand how lucky they are to have a roof over their head. Focus on gratitude and realize that you have many blessings. Life is excellent.


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