CHESSNOID

It is extremely warm lately. I live near the beach and usually the warmest it will get is in the 80 degrees if that. Today was different, and went up to the high 90 degrees. We are definitely experiencing a heat wave in super sunny southern California. Summer just started yesterday but it has been hot all week. I went to work this morning for a half day from 8-noon, so I was able to be productive on my Saturday. When I got home, I took a nap after eating lunch so that cancelled out the rest of the day. Tonight, they have the TUF finale which I don’t really follow but my friend mentioned it to me at work. Diego Sanchez will be fighting so I have it set up on my DVR. Thank goodness for modern technology.

I have been reading many more articles about Obama and McCain. A year ago, I thought it was automatically going to be a new Democrat President because of Bush’s failed direction of our country. Now, I don’t have that confidence. At this point, our economy is extremely weak and neither have real plans that will have immediate consequences in improving it. Gasoline is at an all time high here in the US and looks to go even higher in the summer. The American public is being hit from all sides right now with the housing bust, inflationary prices on all foods, gas taken a bigger chunk of our budgets, and really no relief in site. The Bush and McCain silliness of drilling for more oil will not help now or in the near future. It is just pandering to the public. I very much doubt this is a true economics issue of supply and demand. If you read my older posts, then I am sure you would agree.

Originally, I thought we were going to have a winning candidate who would actually withdraw our troops from Iraq. Listening to what both campaigns have to say about the situation makes me think neither one will do so. In fact, the opposite may be true. Obama who promised that he would withdraw troops if elected has already backslided on previous promises of campaign financing and recent interviews show he is telling the American public one thing and the foreign countries another. McCain on the other hand says he is willing to stay the course as long as necessary but gives himself a way out saying that if a civil war broke out and American casualties were unacceptable, then he would have to rethink the situation. Not exactly troop withdrawal but actually more hopeful than Obama’s campaign saying if we do leave Iraq we have to do so honorably. To me that rhetoric is the same as a debtor telling me “I will try my best”. Usually the “check is in the mail” never arrives. I have major doubts about Obama delivering on his campaign promises because he has already broken one already. The candidate that stands for integrity has forfeited for more campaign money against the Republican McCain. Theoretically, more money should help Obama, but during the democrat primaries, in all the big states he outspent Clinton up to 3 times and still lost. That is what it looks like in those states for him against McCain. Just so you know I don’t believe in polls.

I believe there is still a lot of racism in America from all races. It obviously shows in the way those states played out in the primaries and I think it will be even more pronounced in the general election. I have doubts about Obama’s winning ways in the questionable caucus held during the primaries and his ability of actually beating out McCain in a popular vote in Republican states no matter how much he spends. Here is a blog dedicated to CaucusCheating. Those tactics if true won’t work in primaries. We saw in all the big states without exception Clinton beating out Obama no matter what he spent which was up to 3 times. As a matter of fact, after Clinton won the big 3 states, Obama was suppose to sweep all the little states, but actually lost some. I remember Ed Rendell talking about Clinton actually winning more than Obama, but don’t feel like looking for the video link. I am sure you could find it on CNN or C-Span if you wanted to really find out. I get the feeling those big states just aren’t ready for a non-White President. Most media won’t really cover that topic because it is taboo, but I see it for what it is. When people vote in the booths privately, they don’t have to worry about appearing racist. They simply vote the way they want to vote. I guess we will see in November how this plays out.

The stock market took a hit last week and the Dow finished below the 12,000 mark. Even though it isn’t a true technical sign, it is definitely a psychological one. The more times we visit that mark, the higher the likelihood it will break it and stay below it. It was below 12,000 just 3 months ago. I think it is similar to crude oil and it hitting those $100, $110, $120 and $130 barriers. As soon as it breaks the $140 barrier a few times, it will form a base at that mark like it did the previous barrier marks. Even though these numbers are forcing everyone to become numb at the pumps, eventually it will just be too much for people to pay. I don’t know what that mark will be, but this isn’t good for the economy and a real answer needs to be enacted with real actions executed behind the plan.

Right now most politicians are just saying drill more. Yes, Bush is an idiot when it comes to common sense. If you look at the cause of what actually pushed the prices to increase in the last 7 months to these all time highs, then you will realize it was those senseless interest rate cuts the Bernanke and Paulson supported to try to stop the Housing Bust. They did that in a panic and of course it didn’t stop the housing bust which is still growing with a bigger inventory of foreclosures! Now to exacerbate the problem, we have $4.50 gallon gas because as they cut interest rates, foreign investors didn’t want to lose money in a US dollar dropping in value. Of course, they bought commodities like crude oil and other currencies (which have all risen against the falling dollar) because no one likes to lose money in any language. We should of raised rates back then not reduce them. Now, Bernanke and Paulson said there will be no more rate cuts and are thinking about rate increases. The market doesn’t believe them because they know that will be doing the right thing. Bush, Bernanke, and Paulson are like the 3 stooges and don’t have a clue of what to do next.

They need to do what Seinfeld’s George Costanza did to change his luck. They just need to do the opposite of what they think they should do and then do it.

They have done everything they thought they should have done, and look where our economy is. We are in a recession they are afraid to acknowledge and diving deeper into a more severe one as they pretend everything is OK now.

I am all in cash in my updown account and have made that simulation account go up $150,000. I am guessing the market will bounce back or fall dramatically on Monday so I will jump back into the ETFs that have help me to succeed so far. There are some really talented traders in that game and I wish I could see what they were doing to be extremely successful. There are a few who have doubled, tripled and even one investor who has increased her portfolio by 1800%. Simply amazing. I wonder if they do that with their real money.