CHESSNOID

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Time to buy stocks? No!

Posted on Oct 19, 2008 by CHESSNOID in current events, economy, housing market, stock market | 0 Comments

If you are dollar cost averaging, then this is the best time to buy stocks.  It isn’t the bottom but you can never see the bottom ahead of you.  You can only see it in the rear view mirror.  Now, if you are in cash and considering buying stock, then I say wait until the numbers indicate it is near the bottom.  The technicals don’t say to buy now, nor do the technicals.

Yes,  the returns at the bank at 1-2% is paltry, but that sure beats negative returns.  Just remember if you were in the stock market a year ago, you saw the numbers decline 40%. Those are really ugly figures. If you must buy stocks now because everything looks so cheap, then I would recommend going in slowly by dollar cost averaging into this down market.  Avoid the all in mentality.  Yes, if you pick the bottom and put all your capital in at the very bottom you will maximize your returns.  However, risk management is important then you are talking about your personal wealth.

Personally, I am staying on the sidelines until next year because of all the previous stuff I stated.  It is just too risky for me.  The markets are volatile and the economy is far from recovered.  I am waiting for the FRAUD bailout #2,#3, and #4 to be announced.  The 3 stooges will not be able to cut rates that much more considering they have brought it down from 5.5% to 1.5%. They can only go to 0% and then they are done with all that nonsense.  Of course, this is like throwing gas on the fire of inflation.

One aspect of the economy that must recover before everything else goes back to normal is the housing.  The housing bubble burst and is still leaking foreclosures. It is a very big balloon.  So far Congress has not dealt with that situation directly and there are major loan resets that will eventually turn into unbelievable foreclosure numbers next year.  After that event occurs is the only  time I will consider buying stock again.

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