CHESSNOID

It’s really hard to argue about something that has no method to measure the results.  So this claim about the Obama administration claiming to have saved or created 1 million jobs should be an easy claim to pass, right?  Unfortunately, this claim has some reports that throw doubt because other reports demonstrate their were more losses than gains.

USA Today:

Christina Romer, the head of Obama’s Council of Economic Advisers, said her team consulted other economists for its report to Congress on the likely effects of the $787 billion package of tax cuts, government spending and aid to states. The administration’s million-job estimate, while preliminary and uncertain, was “in the middle of the plausible range” of estimates made by independent experts, she said.

First, you can see the unemployment rate rising from January to September from 7.6% (11.6 million unemployed persons) to 9.7%  (15 million unemployed persons) which is about 3.4 million more than when the current administration started.  So that claim they saved or created 1 million jobs would mean we would possibly be at 16 million job losses.

Second, most of the $787 billion package has not been disbursed and the money that has been released has not made it the final end user to be spent.  So saving or creating a million jobs based on money not spent is quite an accomplishment.

CNN.Money:

While government spending at all levels increased in the second quarter, only a small amount of the $787 billion stimulus package had trickled out by June 30.

As of July 3, only $60.4 billion of recovery funds had been distributed, the largest chunk of which went to help states cope with rising Medicaid costs. Much of the $43 billion in stimulus tax relief — which includes the Making Work Pay tax credit for individuals — also kicked in during the quarter.

“I don’t think the effect of stimulus has been very large,” said Edward Lazear, an economics professor at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business who advised former President George W. Bush. “Very little has gone out.”

On  a side note Romer is the economic adviser that forecast unemployment would top out at 8% by the end of the year.  She was off not just by 3 million but by 6 months too.  So her credibility no matter how educated or smart she is at this point is suspect.

The reason why I am critical of these unmeasurable claims is that they are trying to use this as a precedence of success for more spending on either more future bailouts or universal health insurance.  They have mucked up  the economy even more than the Bush administration did which I thought would be impossible.  I base my opinion on the continued increases in foreclosures, the increasing unemployment rate, and a trillion dollar deficit growing at a record pace by the trillions.