CHESSNOID

Howard Davidowitz is very animated when talking about the numbers. He is also very accurate. I like the fact he relates the numbers in context vs just cheer lead everything is better because the media says it is.

What Recovery? U.S. Consumers Getting “Dramatically Worse,” Howard Davidowitz Says

“The consumer is in worse shape since I was here last” in August, Davidowitz says, citing the following:

• Unemployment has exploded: “We’ve lost a ton of jobs since I was here last,” Davidowitz says, noting the “real” unemployment rate is 17.5%. “That’s an astounding number.”
• Housing continues to sink: “The consumers’ biggest asset is down trillions” in value while “foreclosures are exploding” and a huge percentage have negative equity — 23% according to CoreLogic.
• Record numbers of consumer bankruptcies: The American consumer has “never been further behind…never defaulted more” on mortgages, student loans, auto loans, and credit card bills, he says.
• Poverty on the Rise: One in eight Americans and one in four children are receiving food stamps, as The NYT reported this weekend.

“A lot of people were out on Black Friday — you’re always going to spend some money because it’s Christmas,” he says. “[But] the consumer continues to get dramatically worse.”

Davidowitz predicts “the noise will be taken out” about “strong” Black Friday sales in the coming weeks and a sobering reality will settle in: “People will look a stores closing and a rash of bankruptcies after Christmas. People will start to look at this and say ‘wow, this is terrible,’” he says.