CHESSNOID

Is the economy getting better?  That depends on what you use to gauge the health of the economy.  If you look at Christmas sales and the stock market numbers you could argue things are getting better. That is what politicians and analysts use to tell the people things are looking up.

If you are more practical like me and use history to gauge the economy, then you will use foreclosure and unemployment rates to see how the economy is doing.  I would have to say it is getting worse.  Unemployment is closer to 10% than it is to 9%.  This number is actually sold to the American public as a lower figure.  If you take the real number of unemployed people who have stopped looking and all the people who are underemployed or working multiple part time jobs, that number is closer to double.  Those are depression era numbers.

As for the foreclosure numbers, I think it is even trickier to determine what the real numbers are.    Considering the banks have manipulated the books, and in some cases instead of foreclosing, the banks  abandon the house and walk away from the property.  In most major metros, the foreclosure activity is increasing even though there are moratoriums in place and banks have gone from 6 months to 24 months before foreclosing on a property.

The Seattle Times:

The foreclosure crisis is getting worse as high unemployment and lackluster job prospects force homeowners in an increasing number of U.S. metropolitan areas into dire financial straits.

In Seattle, Houston and Chicago, cities that were relatively insulated from foreclosures early on in the housing bust, a growing number of homeowners are falling behind on mortgage payments and finding themselves on the receiving end of foreclosure warnings. Others have already seen their homes repossessed by lenders.

All told, foreclosure activity jumped in 149 of the country’s 206 largest metropolitan areas last year, foreclosure listing firm RealtyTrac Inc. said Thursday.

The firm tracks notices for defaults, scheduled home auctions and home repossessions – warnings that can lead up to a home eventually being lost to foreclosure.

Job loss, rather than time-bomb mortgages resetting to higher payments, has become the main driver behind rising foreclosures.

“We’ve actually had a sea change in what’s causing foreclosures, from the overheated home prices and bad loans to a second wave of foreclosures actually caused by unemployment and economic displacement,” says Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac.

The Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown metropolitan area in Texas saw its foreclosure rate jump 26 percent from 2009, the largest increase among the top 20 biggest metro areas, the firm said.

Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, in Washington, ranked second with an increase of nearly 23 percent, while the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta metro area in Georgia was third with a 21 percent bump.

In the Chicago-Naperville-Joliet metropolitan area, foreclosure activity rose 16 percent, while home repossessions climbed nearly 20 percent, RealtyTrac said.

“As the economy and unemployment improve, you’ll see those markets recover fairly quickly, whereas you’re still going to have a bit of a hangover in places like California, Florida and Nevada,” Sharga said.

Those states, and Arizona, remain the country’s foreclosure hotbeds, accounting for 19 of the top 20 metropolitan areas with the highest foreclosure rates in 2010.